Would you have invested a billion USD in that website:
Above you find the the world´s first ever published internet website. It was very basic, with zero design elements. Below some conclusions when comparing the advancement of internet (where I lost a lot of money) with blockchain technology:
- Blockchain will create value: Amazon killed lots of book stores and Netflix a the video rental business. However , giant companies, like General Electric, Siemens, infrastructure, distribution, finance, etc. did not disappear. Internet helped to create value, additively. I think that the blockchain companies and ways of doing business will maybe kill PayPal or Western Union but not replace Google, Facebook, Siemens, and Amazon.
- I expect a period with crypto market cap to continue growing exponentially. It will be over when internet companies will start joining the crypto space like Telegram plans with its own tokens and Telegram Open Network (TON).
- A few months after the giants join the space I expect the entire crypto market to crash about 80% and for it to recover only later. It took internet bubble 3-´5 years to recover. Assumption based on Nasdaq data taking into consideration accelerated recovery speed today.
- There are still tens of thousands of ICOs to come: I find this when comparing number of Internet based companies with the number of crypto tokens/coin/altcoins.
- I expect the blockchain cycle to be much faster than the internet cycle took. While history repeats itself it never does so perfectly. In my experience thing are accelerating over time.
- Cryptocurrencies are more than money: Bitcoin for storing value to be compared with Gold, other coins compared like commodities like electricity. It definitely cannot directly compared with FIAT like some Central banks (see my article on World’s Central Banks views)